{"id":519,"date":"2016-10-31T20:07:43","date_gmt":"2016-10-31T20:07:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.mathworks.com\/headlines\/?p=519"},"modified":"2016-11-14T12:12:15","modified_gmt":"2016-11-14T12:12:15","slug":"using-meta-analysis-to-predict-the-outcome-of-next-weeks-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.mathworks.com\/headlines\/2016\/10\/31\/using-meta-analysis-to-predict-the-outcome-of-next-weeks-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Using meta-analysis to predict the outcome of next week’s election"},"content":{"rendered":"

You may have heard about the upcoming US election. There\u2019s been a \u2018bit\u2019 of news coverage on the subject. Going back to the purpose of the “Behind the Headlines” blog, this post is to share the role\u00a0MATLAB<\/a>\u00a0plays in an issue that drives today\u2019s news: It\u2019s hard to imagine a recent news story that has received more coverage, in the US at least, than next week’s election.<\/p>\n

Throughout this election, polls and pollsters have played a significant role, just as they did for the Brexit vote earlier this year. In fact, NBC News<\/em> recently compared the polling in both elections in their article\u00a0\u201cNo, the Presidential Election Will Not Be the Next ‘Brexit’ for Pollsters<\/a>.\u201d This post turns to\u00a0psephology<\/a>, the study of scientific analysis of elections, to examine polling results.<\/p>\n

Princeton Election Consortium<\/h2>\n

The Princeton Election Consortium is a blog written by Dr. Sam Wang<\/a>. In addition to his role as a professor of molecular biology and neuroscience at Princeton University, Dr. Wang authors the PEC blog which utilizes\u00a0meta-analysis<\/a> to predict the winner of the Electoral College. Meta-analysis is a statistical approach that combines the results from multiple studies in an effort to increase the accuracy as compared to the individual poll results. It is often used to resolve uncertainty when polls disagree.<\/p>\n

\"pec-blog-image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Meta-analysis of state polls provides more objectivity and precision than looking at a single poll and gives an accurate, current snapshot of the state of play. Over the course of the campaign, the PEC site has attracted over a million visits.<\/p>\n

In 2004, the median decided-voter calculation from PEC on Election Eve captured the exact final outcome. The 2008 PEC calculation provided results based on decided-voter polling from all 50 states, and in the closing week of the campaign was within 1 electoral vote of the final outcome.\u00a0In 2012, PEC’s electoral vote median exactly matched the final outcome between President Barack Obama and challenger Gov. Mitt Romney.<\/p>\n

How MATLAB is used<\/h2>\n

Professor Wang uses MATLAB for his calculations throughout the site. Here are some pages with references and\/or MATLAB code.<\/p>\n