Puzzler: Match play on blackjack, baccarat or other casino games

Posted by Doug Hull, February 25, 2010

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As with many math geeks, I am fascinated by casinos and the math surrounding them. I, however, like to win. Consequently, I have no interest in playing a game that I am mathematically destined to lose. That means when I go to the casino, I walk past every blackjack spread, roulette wheel, and baccarat table until I reach the Poker Room. I play $1-$2 No-limit Texas hold-em and I do it better than most of the people at the table. A math geek’s dream: I get to extract money from people for being bad at probability! Something interesting came in the mail the other day. Mohegan Sun sent me four $20 Match Play coupons good at

Blackjack (assuming initial bet only)
Three card poker (ante bet only)
Four card poker (ante bet only)
Caribbean stud poker (ante bet only)
Baccarat, mini and midi versions also (no tie bet, must pay commission on winning banker bet)

Basically, I put down an initial wager for $20, and the coupon makes it a $40 bet. I have checked, and this meets the minimum at every game listed above. I am looking to maximize the expected value of these coupons. I have no interest in learning to count cards, or learn any complex strategies (I am willing to play basic strategy at blackjack). I will walk away from the tables as soon as I am no longer a favorite (i.e. I run out of match play cards) and then head over to the Poker Room, where I know I am a favorite. Using MATLAB, make your best case for the wagers I should place. I know that even the best strategy could leave me losing money, I am fine with that as long as I have a positive expected value going in. Just like the Ultimate Frisbee puzzler, I offer a MATLAB t-shirt to the most convincing entry. Here are some entries from the File Exchange that might be of interest:

Please don’t gamble more than you can afford to lose (especially if you sit down at my poker table) and please take a big look at the legal disclaimer from MathWorks: “These postings are the author’s and don’t necessarily represent the opinions of The MathWorks.”